Quarterly Economic Outlook Q1 2021

The opening months of 2021 have been amongst the most difficult for the Irish economy and society since the onset of COVID-19. Over 650,000 people remain unemployed and a further 310,000 are reliant on wage subsidies, the current restrictions mean that most will remain there well into the second quarter. But we can begin to look forward to the second half of the year with hope. 2021 will not see a return to normal trading in all sectors but there is potential for life and commerce to take a more normal rhythm.

 Disregarding the noise about vaccine supply, the signal is clear – with efficient rollout most adults should have their first dose by the end of June. From there, light will begin to creep in. With the correct Government messaging and continued fiscal support, confidence will begin to return to large sections of households and business. This will help promote continued export growth, reduce the record pace of household saving, bring down unemployment and give the economic recovery a much-needed shot in the arm.